May 7, 2008

 

ASA weekly: US soy planting to hit estimates, topple corn acreage

 

The USDA reported that 2 percent of the US soy crop has been planted as of April 27, while just 10 percent of the corn crop has been planted.

 

The lack of corn planting progress and the wet conditions that will continue to impede planting in the heart of the Corn Belt supports earlier forecasts that soy plantings will be as large as USDA's March intentions of 30.3 million hectares.

 

However, one constraint to US soy planting in 2008 could be the availability of quality seeds.

 

Brent Floyd with Pioneer Hybrid said it has been really tough to fill invoices for quality soy seeds placed in the winter.

 

Germination rates on soy seeds are usually 90 percent or better, but this year there will be seeds sold tagged with 75 percent germination, as adverse weather late last summer and in the fall affected seed coats and forced seed companies to use more soy to make quality seeds this year, Floyd added.

 

The quality of soy seed is measured by the germination percentage, or the number of seeds per 100 that are viable.

 

Most years, soy has germination rates above 90 percent, with 80 percent being the standard.

 

US government says biofuel subsidies not the culprit of global food shortages

 

The US government does not believe that subsidies for biofuels are responsible for global food shortages, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Stephen Johnson said. 

 

As corn, soy and other crops are increasingly used to produce biofuels, many commentators in EU and elsewhere have asserted that this phenomenon contributes both to soaring food prices.

 

Johnson said that it is an overstatement to say that biofuel production is causing food shortages.

 

Agricultural economists who have been evaluating the situation look at a variety of factors, and at this point, biofuels is very, very low on that list of major contributors, Johnson pointed out.

 

US census lowers March crush figures

 

The US Census Bureau on May 2 revised its end-of-March soy oil stocks figure to 1.31 million tonnes, down 6,350 tonnes from the crush report.

 

The Census also made a sharp downward revision in its soy oil usage in methyl ester (mostly biodiesel) production figure for February to 98,400 tonnes, which is 33,100 tonnes less than initially reported.

 

Soy oil usage in biodiesel during March was reported to be 106,000 tonnes, which is much lower than analysts had anticipated based on the original February figure.

 

Total usage of fats and oils in biodiesel production increased to 172,000 tonnes in March from a revised 150,000 tonnes in February.

 

US soy complex lower as strong dollar leads to heavy speculative selling

 

The US soy complex closed lower on May 1 as strength in the US dollar triggered a round of heavy speculative selling.

 

Soy complex futures are expected to see additional pressure from speculative selling if the dollar continues to strengthen, especially if that leads to a further setback in the energy markets and lowers the breakeven soy oil price for biodiesel producers.

 

May soy futures closed down US$15.80, finishing at US$462.51; July lost US$15.80, closing at US$467.01; and August was down US$15.80, ending at US$462.97.

 

May soymeal decreased US$14.55 closing at US$356.48; July was US$14.00 lower, finishing at US$363.21; and August meal closed down US$13.78, ending at US$359.90.

 

May soy oil decreased US$20.06 to finish at US$1251.33; July was down US$43.65, closing at US$1242.29; and August was US$42.99 lower, closing at US$1249.57.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,617	174	334	185	1,638	2,252	3,851
Production	83,368	86,770	70,358	40,500	48,800	47,000	57,000	59,000	61,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,359	2,600	40	108	130
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,941	32,748	37,600	38,100	28,756	30,770	31,800
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,896	7,130	12,208	10,000	24,770	23,805	27,900
Other	5,288	4,040	4,495	1,475	1,500	1,525	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,628	82,332	41,353	51,308	49,625	56,426	57,509	62,650
Carryout	12,229	15,617	3,806	334	185	160	2,252	3,851	2,331
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	2,003	2,076	636	863	1,013
Production	37,416	39,033	39,720	25,582	29,153	29,550	22,300	23,850	24,615
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	620	645	10,000	11,500	12,000
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,743	24,691	28,460	29,164	12,073	12,200	12,713
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,767	25,265	29,080	29,809	22,073	23,700	24,713
Carryout	285	318	271	2,003	2,076	1,817	863	1,013	915
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	350	248	300	301
Production	9,248	9,292	9,614	6,169	7,200	7,320	5,521	5,910	6,105
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	8,573	402	597	1,135	3,172	3,450	3,640
Net exports	507	839	1,071	5,665	6,740	6,160	2,297	2,459	2,450
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,644	6,067	7,337	7,295	5,469	5,909	6,090
Carryout	1,366	1,317	1,287	487	350	375	300	301	316

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 24 April 2008
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
China	Soybeans	63.50	11208.00		Malaysia	Soymeal	1.00	31.00
Colombia	Soybeans	7.00	169.40		Mexico	Soymeal	5.40	694.60
Indonesia	Soybeans	4.10	823.20		New Zealand	Soymeal	6.00	10.80
Japan	Soybeans	25.30	1961.00		Philippines	Soymeal	0.80	375.40
Mexico	Soybeans	89.10	2388.60		Russia	Soymeal	0.50	7.50
Netherlands	Soybeans	125.10	1176.70		Salvador	Soymeal	6.50	91.80
Taiwan	Soybeans	10.00	1348.60		Canada	Soyoil	0.70	21.60
Turkey	Soybeans	9.50	379.00		Dom. Rep.	Soyoil	10.00	25.40
Vietnam	Soybeans	0.50	55.50		Mexico	Soyoil	3.80	82.30
Australia	Soymeal	2.50	0.00		Nicaragua	Soyoil	3.20	10.60
Canada	Soymeal	7.80	744.00		Salvador	Soyoil	1.30	8.40
France	Soymeal	9.00	61.40
Guatemala	Soymeal	18.70	172.20		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Guyana	Soymeal	48.50	52.30		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Honduras	Soymeal	0.50	95.60		Soybeans	4,210.20	24,634.70	310.90
Indonesia	Soymeal	1.00	79.30		Soymeal	1,456.80	4,490.00	59.10
Japan	Soymeal	18.10	190.40		Soyoil	138.10	798.50	8.90