May 5, 2010

Spain's forecast for winter grain crop takes an upturn

The data are preliminary, however. While farmers agree that wet weather has helped crop development so far, they say a heatwave and drought in May and June could hit output hard.

Spanish grain harvests are notoriously unpredictable and have varied in recent years between 14 million and 24 million tonnes in total, depending on weather in late spring.

Based on data collated by the end of February, the Ministry estimated farmers would harvest 15.17 million tonnes of winter grains in 2010.

The Ministry forecast that output of soft wheat, which is mainly used in animal feed but also for bread, would jump by 18% to 4.01 million tonnes.

The main drop was expected in durum wheat - 22 % - the only grain in which Spain ever has an exportable surplus, and which is used to make pasta. Traders say much of last year's durum crop has not been sold because it cannot compete on the international markets.

Even in a bumper year, Spain cannot grow enough grain to meet its needs due to its poor soil and must import at least seven million tonnes a year, making it a market which attracts selling interest from Argentina to Ukraine.