Mexico may see H1N1 return in winter

Although the H1N1 flu epidemic in Mexico appeared to be ebbing, odds were the virus would be back in winter, a senior health ministry official said Monday (May 4).

 

A resurgence was "predictable," based not only on the behavior of previous viruses - such as the one behind the World War I-era "Spanish flu" that killed over 25 million people - but also because H1N1 "can't disappear completely," said Epidemiological Vigilance Center chief Miguel Angel Lezana.

 

"The risk therefore is that when winter comes it could intensify again."

 

Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova noted "a declining trend in the number of suspect and confirmed cases" in the epidemic, though he too warned of a flu comeback.

 

"We have to reinforce epidemiological vigilance, especially while we don't have a vaccine for the new virus,'' he said.

 

Such a vaccine would probably not be ready before September, several international health officials have said.

 

Mathematical models used by Mexican health authorities suggested each person infected with the new flu virus could in turn infect around 1.5 other people.

 

Another estimate based on that figure predicted that one carrier, through a chain of infections, would result in 10 more people being infected each day.

 

In terms of fatalities, the virus had affected "all social levels" although the highest number was people of low- and middle-class, Lezana said.

 

The age of those who died was between 21 and 40.

 

Government figures late Monday put the toll from the flu at 26 people dead and 776 infected, based on tests of more than 2,000 suspect cases compiled over the past few weeks.