May 5, 2004

Brazil 2003-2004 Soy Crop Forecast Up 2.2% On

The Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, on Thursday lowered its estimate for the 2003-04 soybean crop (October- September) to 52.6 million metric tons.

The forecast is down from last month's estimate of 56.93 million tons but is still 2.2% higher than last year's production of 51.5 million tons.

The IBGE has lowered its estimate over the past few months from an original 59 million tons due to irregular weather conditions and disease in the first quarter.

The bureau said the main losses were due to drought in Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, were output was reduced by 5.3 million tons, and excess rains and Asian rust in Mato Grosso and Goias states, where 1.7 million tons were shaved off the original estimate.

The government institute's figure was based on a survey conducted in March.

The estimate is higher than the 50.2 million tons forecast by the Agriculture Ministry's National Commodity Supply Corp., or Conab, on Wednesday.

Local analyst forecasts are mostly under 50 million tons.

Meanwhile, midcrop corn production is seen dropping to 11.87 million tons, down 10.8% from last year and below last month's estimate of 12.77 million tons.

Brazil's grain, oilseed and cereal crop is expected to reach 125.5 million tons this season, up 1.5% on last year's 123.6 million tons but down from the previous estimate of 130.45 million tons.