May 4, 2011

Forecast of Brazilian soy harvest to increase

Oilseeds analyst Oil World on Tuesday (May 3) increased its prediction of Brazil's 2011 soy production by 0.5 million tonnes as crop yields exceeded expectations in spite of unfavourable weather lately.

Oil World now forecasts Brazil's 2011 soy crop at a new record 72.5 million tonnes compared with 72 million tonnes it forecast in April and 70.5 million tonnes expected in March. Brazil harvested 68.6 million tonnes in 2010.

The estimate compares with 72.2 million tonnes forecast by Brazilian government agency Conab in April.

"Soy production this year is likely to turn out higher than expected," Oil World said.

Brazilian harvesting was almost completed in most regions and a record area was planted with soy, it said.

"Record yields were achieved, primarily in Mato Grosso, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the three-largest Brazilian soy producing states," Oil World said.

Soy plants in Brazil, the world's second-largest soy exporter after the US, suffered heavy rain at a vulnerable time just before harvesting but the impact was not as bad as feared, it said.

The large crop will mean Brazil's soy exports will speed up in May and June, it said.

Argentine soy harvesting is making good progress although yields are down on the year after unfavourable weather, Oil World said.

Oil World said it is currently retaining its forecast of Argentina's 2011 soy crop of 49 million tonnes, down from 53.9 million tonnes last year.