May 3, 2004

Brazil 2003-04 Soy Crop Seen Down 3%
 
Brazilian agriculture consultancy Safras e Mercado cut its estimate of Brazil's 2003-04 (October-September) soybean crop to 49.98 million metric tons from its previous forecast of 52.28 million tons due to adverse weather conditions, especially in the south of the country.
 
With the losses mounting, output will now be 3% lower than the record 51.42 million tons produced last season, and well below estimates of over 56 million tons at the beginning of the season.
 
According to Safras, 95% of the harvest has been complete, and average productivity is estimated at around 2,369 kilograms per hectare, compared with 2,808 kg/hectare last year.
 
Total soy acreage this year is calculated at a record 21.093 million hectares, up from 18.311 million hectares last season.
 
Safras' forecast is below estimates by the government released in recent days.
 
The Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, on Thursday lowered its estimate for the 2003-04 soybean crop to 52.6 million metric tons, while the Agriculture Ministry's National Commodity Supply Corp., or Conab, sees the crop at 50.2 million tons.