May 2, 2012

Oil World lowers EU 2012 rapeseed crop expectations

The European Union's 2012 rapeseed crop is expected to drop from last year's 19.1 million tonnes to a six-year low of 18.21 million tonnes, due to reduced harvests from a harsh winter, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday (May 1).

This was down by 0.27 million tonnes from Oil World's previous forecast on April 17.

EU rapeseed prices rose sharply in April as fears intensified that the exceptionally cold weather has damaged plants.

"Lower-than-expected crops are now projected for Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, France and Germany," Oil World said. "This will however be partly offset by a favourable crop in the UK, which we now estimate at 2.72 million tonnes, thus almost matching the record 2.76 million tonnes achieved in 2011."

The disappointing EU harvest means EU July 2012/June 2013 rapeseed imports are likely to rise to 3.30 million tonnes from 3.16 million tonnes in the same year-ago period, it estimates.

EU 2012/13 rapeseed crushings are likely to fall to 20.80 million tonnes from 21.24 million tonnes a year previously, it estimates.

"It is still uncertain whether canola (rapeseed) production and export supplies in Canada and Australia can be raised sufficiently to satisfy import requirements in the EU and other countries," it said.