May 1, 2013

The domestic poultry supply in Brazil may reach 9.15 million tonnes this year, an increase of 4.6% from the amount sold locally in 2012.

The total is expected to be driven upward by greater production and a notable decline in exports, according to estimates shared Thursday (Apr 25) by the Agroeconomic Research Institute at consultancy Safras & Mercado (S&M).

Brazilian poultry production overall could reach 12.85 million tonnes this year, topping 2012 production by 1.66%. S&M analysts wrote that the increased supply of corn and soymeal in Brazil this year will lower input costs for poultry farmers, allowing them to produce more meat.

But more of that meat should be sold locally and likely at lower prices than last year. Poultry exports have been weaker than S&M expected through the first three months of this year, and its analysts now forecast exports for 2013 to total 3.71 million tonnes, about 5% less than the 3.9 million tonnes exported last year.

S&M's poultry export forecasts are pessimistic because of reduced growth in demand worldwide. The average price of Brazilian poultry sold internationally has also increased this year from 2012.