April 30, 2012

Following a severe winter weather damaged crops, increasing tension in supply and prices of the oilseed, rapeseed production in the EU is on course to fall to a six-year low of 17.6 million tonnes in 2012, analyst Strategie Grains said.

The forecast crop would be down from an estimated 19.1 million tonnes harvested last year, the French analyst said.

Strategie Grain's forecast for the EU rapeseed crop is below the 18.48 million tonnes currently estimated by Hamburg-based oilseed analyst Oil World.

Deep winter frosts hurt crops in several EU countries, leading to resowing of some fields and reducing yield potential, it said, adding that dryness this year and temperature swings in April were creating additional risks for plants.

It projected the average yield of this year's crop at 2.95 tonnes a hectare, above 2.85 tonnes in 2011, but the area would fall to a six-year low of 6 million hectares, down from 6.8 million last year.

The crop outlook could decline to 16.7 million tonnes if adverse weather continues, while favourable conditions until the harvest could raise production potential to 18 million tonnes, Strategie Grains said.

The sharp expected fall in production this year would further weigh on already-low EU rapeseed stocks, Strategie Grains said, stressing this would create strong upward pressure on new-crop prices.

EU ending stocks would fall to 960,000 tonnes in 2012-13 against 1.28 million seen this season, while imports next season would rise to 3.1 million tonnes from three million expected in 2011-12, it said.