China's soy imports to take a sharp upturn

China's October 2009/September 2010 soy imports are likely to rise by 3.9 million tonnes on the year to 45 million tonnes, according to Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts, Oil World.

 

This was 1.2 million tonnes above Oil World's previous estimate in March.

 

"There are several indications that China is going to step up imports and crushings of soy above earlier expectations in April/June 2010," Oil World said.

 

 

China has been increasing its own soy crushings, in turn raising its own domestic soyoil production, Oil World said. It estimates China's soy crushings will rise to 22.9 million tonnes in March/August 2010, up from 20.7 million tonnes in March 2009.

 

A lack of large alternative soyoil supplies means that China is likely to resume its purchases of Argentine soyoil despite the trade dispute, it said.

 

"For October/September 2009/10, we project China will import 1.9 million tonnes of soyoil of which 1.2 million tonnes will be from Argentina," it said. "We thus expect that in April/September 2010, China will still import approximately 0.6 million tonnes of soyoil from Argentina."