April 26, 2007

China to be increasingly reliant on grain imports

China would become increasingly reliant on grain imports in the next decade, Cheng Guoqiang, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the State Council Development and Research Center said at the "11th China Grain Forum".

China's self sufficiency rate of such major cereals and oil products as wheat, maize and soybean will decrease as it increasingly relies on the world market, he said.

Although China's rice production would increase and boost its self sufficiency in the grain, wheat self sufficiency would drop from 93.9 percent in 2000 to 85.1 percent by 2020.

Corn self-sufficiency would drop from 97.4 percent currently to 72 percent while soy would see a steeper drop from 46.1 percent to 20.6 percent, Cheng said. 

The DOHA round of trade talks on agriculture, policies in the US and EU, production in Australia and Canada, and the rising use of bio-fuels are all expected to impact on China's grain trade.