April 26, 2004

Kenya's 2004/05 Wheat Production Seen At 197,000 MT

Kenya's MY 2004/05 wheat production is forecast at 197,000 metric tons, according to information from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service web site, dated April 20 and released Friday.
 
Production
 
Normal to relatively abundant rains has been reported in the past one month in most of the wheat growing areas in Kenya. Precipitation has been generally widespread in the main wheat growing areas of Uasin Gishu, Narok, Nakuru and Timau Districts. Despite localized floods in some of these areas, growing conditions are generally favorable for crop development, the report said.
 
Harvesting of the 2003 wheat crop has been completed and aggregate wheat production is provisionally estimated at 2.18 million bags (196,000 tons) for MY 2003/04. Assuming that rainfall will be about average for the remaining part of the growing season wheat output for MY 2004/05 is forecast at 2.19 million bags (197,100 tons).
 
Wheat prices
 
For the season just concluded wheat producer prices averaged 242-256 USD per ton for the hard wheat and 2060-227 USD per ton for soft wheat. Wheat prices are forecast to remain within similar ranges for the harvest commencing in July/August, 2004. Presently import prices average 284 USD per ton.
 
Despite the good prices experienced during the last two years area is unlikely to increase since maize the most commonly switched crop had good prices. Improved husbandry is likely to be effected due to the good prices and a marginal production increase might be recorded.
 
Wheat Imports
 
Kenya produced 196,000 tons against an estimated annual consumption of 700,000 tons (imports and production). The shortfall is met by imports from different origins. Russia and Ukraine appear as promising new origins. Kenya imported 461,000 tons of wheat during 2003, a figure that is expected to increase slightly during 2004 (600,000). Wheat import taxes are 25 %.

Source: USDA