April 25, 2009

 

CBOT Corn Review on Friday: Lower; trade sees progress in lowa

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures ended lower Friday as traders anticipate strong planting progress in the western U.S. corn belt.

 

May corn was down 4 cents at US$3.77 per bushel, July corn ended down 4 1/4 cents at US$3.85 3/4, and December corn ended down 4 3/4 cents at US$4.06 3/4.

 

Traders' views of the planting progress are mixed, but analysts said there were reports of significant progress in Iowa, the top corn-producing state, as well as Minnesota and Nebraska.

 

"The question is how much progress really got done, especially west of the river," said Joel Karlin, analyst for Western Milling.

 

But analysts also noted forecasts calling for more rain next week, and said progress is well behind in the eastern corn belt. Monday's crop progress report will set the market's direction next week, analysts said.

 

The trade is expecting progress well behind average, with estimates ranging from 12% to 20%.

 

John Kleist, broker/analyst for Allendale in McHenry, Ill., said there's not yet a sense of urgency because of the planting.

 

"There's still time and there's still genetics," Kleist said.

 

The market traded a tight range, with a battleground at US$3.80 in the May contract, which was the strike price for options that expired Friday.

 

Analysts are also noted reports Friday of the possibility that China will start selling some of its stockpiles.

 

Although export demand has remained strong, concerns about ethanol demand persist, highlighted by what Karlin called "a kick to the groin" of the ethanol industry Thursday, when the state of California approved a new low-carbon emissions standard that takes into account land-use changes on ethanol.

 

The May contract rebounded from a sharp drop Monday, ending up 3/4 cents on the week.

 

CBOT oats futures ended slightly lower. May oats were down 3/4 cent at US$1.93 1/4 per bushel and July oats were down 3/4 cent at US$2.02 1/4.

 

Ethanol futures were slightly higher. May ethanol was up US$0.010 at US$1.570 per gallon and June ethanol was up US$0.005 at US$1.570.