April 24, 2009

Retail meat buyers appear to be redirecting their attention toward procuring other meats for their May needs and away from beef.

 

It's not that they've changed their minds on what they plan to feature in May - it's still likely to be beef - it's just that they will want to provide shoppers with a wide mix of products from which to choose. They also may have most of their expected beef needs booked.

 

Warming weather is expected to spark increased interest in backyard grilling, and that usually means beef, but pork and chicken also work nicely, and many shoppers may be looking for something cheaper than beef.

 

The Mother's Day observance in mid-May generally tends to have less meat associated with it than many others through the year. Grocers generally don't push the date with advertised specials to any great degree, although restaurants often pick up the pace of advertising for the event.

 

And now that the Easter holiday is behind them, grocers appear to be planning to push meat more aggressively, market analysts and beef buyers said.

 

So far this season, grocers haven't said much about Cinco de Mayo celebrations, said Bruce Longo, market analyst for Urner Barry's Yellow Sheet. Retailers often use this as a way to promote beef sales, especially of some of the lower-priced items that go into fajitas.

 

Longo said there was no reason given for why grocers weren't planning large promotions tied to the Cinco de Mayo, but that few retailers had mentioned the Mexican celebration in their discussions about upcoming holidays.

 

The primary focus for retailer beef plans appears to be keeping beef on the front pages of their weekly newspaper supplements, the market analysts said. Warming temperatures give them hope that a recognisable grilling season will emerge from the shadows of winter and the recession soon.

 

Many market analysts have been predicting for weeks that post-Easter grocery advertisements would lean toward featuring more beef. The Dow Jones Newswires survey this week isn't showing the changeover just yet, but market analysts said they didn't expect much of a shift in emphasis until early May.

 

"There are some attempts at a steak or something," Longo said, "but there is no wholesale push toward beef."

 

Some retailers in the eastern US hope that forecasts for a very mild weekend there could prompt more grilling and beef demand, Longo said. However, consumers generally like to see more consistently spring-like weather before committing to a grilling weekend. And, there is the ever-present concern about how readily consumers will part with their hard-earned dollars in this recession.

 

The average price of the 15 cuts of beef in the Dow Jones Newswires survey was US$3.66 a pound, compared with US$3.55 a week ago and US$3.70 a year ago.

 

Intuitively, the wide spread between wholesale beef and pork prices would drive retail buyers toward pork, encouraging them to fill their weekly advertisements with more pork, possibly at the expense of beef, said Jim Kenney, pork market analyst at the Yellow Sheet. Currently, the spread between the two is nearly even with the widest point of the year.

 

But "no one wants to make commitments," Kenney said. They all want to buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.

 

The result is that some cuts back up in some packers' coolers, and buyers are rewarded for their buying habits by being able to find whatever they want at the last minute.

 

Other market analysts said grocers may be expecting to offer good pork specials along side their May beef features. Doing so would give shoppers more choices, which could bring them into the stores in greater numbers.

 

Grocers still may have this in mind for May grocery advertisements, Kenney said. But since they don't want to be oversupplied with product and they've been rewarded in the past with their hand-to-mouth purchasing, they're not likely to book ahead.

 

There was some interest from buyers this week in booking pork butts for Cinco de Mayo, and they could be looking at these products along with the loins for features through May. They're just not booking their orders yet.

 

The average price of the 13 cuts of pork in the Dow Jones Newswires survey was US$2.14 per pound, compared with US$2.17 a week ago and US$2.27 a year ago.

 

This week is an oddball week for chicken specials at the retail counter, said Sue Trudell, vice president of EMI Analytics. It's after the Easter holiday and not quite the end of the month and not quite the first of the next month.

 

Some traders have indicated to her that good first-of-the-month boneless/skinless chicken breast features were planned and that retailers were looking ahead to the Mother's Day and Memorial Day weekends as well.

 

Mother's day attention was focused on the food-service sector since it's not really a grilling holiday, market analysts said. But the holiday also tends to be more of a restaurant meal observance, which tends to help sell chicken breasts to Mom.

 

However, late May and the Memorial Day holiday could be larger feature times for chicken since it's the end of the month when shopper incomes are lowest, and the grills are fired up. It could compliment ground beef ads.

 

As a result, wholesale breast meat prices have begun to move higher, Trudell said. While this is partially because of a six-percent decline in chicken production, it also has the backing of extra bookings for upcoming needs.

 

The average price of the four cuts of chicken in the Dow Jones Newswires survey was US$1.51 per pound, compared with US$1.32 a week ago and US$1.64 a year ago.