April 24, 2008

World egg demand to reach 12 million tonnes by 2015

Demand for hen eggs is expected to reach 12 million tonnes (mt) by 2015 while production is at 70.9 mt, according to the International Egg Commission's statistical analyst, Professor Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst.

About two-thirds of additional demand will come from Asia, 12 percent from Africa and 11 percent from Latin America. North America and Europe will lose market share.

In a report by Poultry International, Professor Windhorst said these projections are based on likely trends in human population numbers and the development of gross national product and per-capita national income. He adds that these estimations could also be influenced by at least three other key factors: avian influenza, rising feed costs and political decisions such as the banning of conventional cages in the European Union (EU).

According to Professor Windhorst, the egg forecast is based on socio-economic data at country level: natural population increases, the age structure of the population, the degree of urbanisation, and projections of the development of gross national income (GNI) on a per-capita basis. With this basic data, the expected changes of the population and the buying power can be estimated.

Projections for the total demand worldwide until 2015 points to an additional demand of 12mt compared to 2005. On country level, China shows the highest additional demand (6mt), followed by India (1.2mt), USA (590,000t), Brazil (430,000t) and Indonesia (420,000t).

In Asia, more than 60 percent of the global population lived in the region, thus, per-capita and total egg consumption will increase in most Asian countries because of an expanding middle class with a growing buying power. Professor Windhorst believes a high population in Asia that even a slight increase in per-capita consumption will lead to a remarkable growth in total egg uptake.

On the other hand, the population in Africa will increase by 227 million by 2015 but this region has an extremely young population, with 41 percent under 15 years of age. Professor Windhorst said there is also the lowest degree of urbanisation, which means that many inhabitants still have to be supplied with food from subsistence farming or through small outlets in rural areas. Despite comparatively high growth rates in gross national product, African egg consumption and demand will remain low compared to other continents as the population because of a low per-capita GNI, slow economic growth and political instability in many countries south of the Sahara.

In Europe is ranked third among the continents, and it is the only one with negative population growth currently at 733 million people. Professor Windhorst states that egg consumption in most of the EU (15) member states will remain fairly stable over the next decade, whereas it may increase considerably in some of the new EU member states because of the growing buying power in the new middle class. As a whole, Professor Windhorst states only a minor additional demand can be expected because of already high per-capita consumption and a decreasing population.

About 70 million people are about to live in the subcontinents of Latin America and the Caribbean by 2015 and this population boom plus its increasing purchasing power due to high growth rate of domestic product in the region's several countries, egg demand will considerably jump, said Professor Windhorst.

Because egg consumption is already relatively high in both these countries, low growth in USA and Canada can be expected in spite of the efforts to convince consumers of the high nutritional value of eggs, states Professor Windhorst. In North America, comprising 5 percent of the global population, only a slow growth of per-capita consumption can be expected. Additional demand will come from natural population increase and immigration.

With 35 million inhabitants, Oceania contributed only 0.5 percent to the global population in 2007. Compared to Europe and North America, egg consumption in Oceania is still quite low. However, it is expected to increase over the next years in particular, in countries outside Australia and New Zealand as a result of a growing buying power.