April 23, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Exports, outside markets sustain uptrend

 

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are poised to continue their uptrend Thursday, underpinned by fundamental and technical strength and supportive outside-market influences.

 

CBOT soybean futures are called to open 8 cents to 10 cents higher.

 

"It's the same bullish story that has buoyed futures on their seven-week rally, with a fresh dose of export news, tightening ending stocks and a lack of offsetting pressure from outside financial markets keeping sellers on the run," a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

Technical momentum is adding to the upward theme, but traders are on guard for buying exhaustion as prices near recent highs. Profit-taking is seen emerging on signs of price pressure, with producer selling and positioning ahead of Friday's options expiration expected to keep a lid on advances.

 

Nevertheless, strong export demand continues to put pressure on already-tight projected old crop stocks, analysts added.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for July soybeans is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of US$10.64 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price objective is to push and close prices below psychological support at US$10.00 a bushel.

 

CBOT soy product futures are seen higher, in line with overnight price action. Soymeal futures are expected to garner support from lower-than-expected stocks in the latest crush report.

 

U.S. soybean crushings totaled 144.7 million bushels in March, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday. On average, analysts anticipated a 144.2-million-bushel crush, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Crushings were up from 135.4 million bushels a month earlier, but down from 156.0 million bushels a year earlier. Soymeal stocks for March totaled 355,453 short tonnes, compared to the average estimate of 410,000. Soyoil stocks totaled 3.064 billion pounds. Analysts, on average, expected 3.113 billion pounds.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 1,441,400 metric tonnes for the week ended April 16. Sales for 2008-09 were a net 617,100 metric tonnes, with China the primary buyer of 405,800 tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 800,000 and 1.15 million metric tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 108,400 tonnes. Trade estimates ranged from 75,000 to 250,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were 57,800 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 10,000 and 55,000 tonnes.

 

USDA on Thursday also announced private export sales of 100,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico in the 2009-10 marketing year.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures slipped slightly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange Thursday, dragged down by bearish external influences, including weak Malaysian equities and a stronger U.S. dollar. Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose Thursday to near an eight-month high although price volatility continued to be a feature of today's trading activity, said trade participants.