April 23, 2009

Expectations ahead of Statistics Canada's first 2009 acreage estimates, which will be released Friday (Apr 24), suggest little change from last year.

 

For rapeseed acreage in 2009-10, estimates are mixed. The average market expectation is for a slight increase from the 16.159 million acres planted in 2008-09 due to relatively favourable returns.

 

However, some traders think the area could be down on the year given rotational issues and the higher costs associated with growing the crop.

 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada recently forecast canola plantings at 17.235 million acres in 2009, although trade estimates range from 15.75 million to 17.0 million acres.

 

Rapeseed broker Keith Ferley of Union Securities in Winnipeg said farmers were still very much up in the air with regards to their cropping decisions when the government survey was conducted in late March. As a result, whatever number Statistics Canada releases on Friday may be quickly second-guessed by the trade.

 

Analyst Mike Jubinville of Pro Farmer Canada said estimated rapeseed acres have a historical tendency to rise in successive Statistics Canada reports.

 

Trade estimates for all-wheat acres range from 24.0 million to 25.1 million acres, which would compare with 25.009 million in 2008-09. Of that total, durum acres are expected to come in at 5.0 million to 6.1 million, with most trade sources expecting little change from last year's 6.030 million acre crop.

 

Darren Frank, a market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, said while spring wheat and durum acres should be relatively stable or even higher, it's already known that farmers planted less winter wheat last fall, which should cut into the overall total.

 

Barley seedings could be up to a million acres below the 9.357 million acres seen in 2008-09, according to some trade guesses.

 

Jerry Klassen, a trader and market analyst, thought low returns per acre would limit barley plantings, cutting them by as much as 11 percent.

 

However, on the other side there were some ideas that barley acres could reach 10 million acres in 2009-10.

 

Frank said there were good contracting prices for malt barley this year, which may help encourage some acres. In addition, he noted that barley is a fairly cheap crop to grow.

 

Oats are another cheap crop to grow, but Frank thought poor prices would likely lead to a reduction in acres. After planting 4.345 million oats acres in 2008-09, market expectations for the upcoming crop year range from 3.8 million to 4.2 million.

 

Market expectations for flaxseed acres range from 1.7 million to 1.9 million acres, which would compare with 1.560 million in 2008-09.

 

Pre-report trade estimates, in million acres.

 

Estimates        2008-09

 

Oats                3.800 -  4.200     4.345