April 22, 2013

 

Chinese consumers may switch to fish over bird flu scare

 

 

Due to the bird flu epidemic, Chinese consumers deterred from chicken and may be switching to fish rather than pork, a support to demand for soymeal, but not corn.

 

The US Grains Council said that there were "suggestions" that consumers were switching to pork from chicken, a move which would protect feed demand from contraction likely in the poultry industry.

 

"Some shoppers who shun poultry will instead buy pork, and groups at restaurants may order two pork dishes rather than the more typical one chicken and one pork dish," the council, which promotes US grain exports, said.

 

Bryan Lohmar, USGC director in China, said, "Since hogs are less efficient converters of feed to meat, and use a higher proportion of energy feeds, any substitution of pork for poultry that occurs will dampen the negative effect of reduced poultry production on feed demand, particularly corn,".

 

However, the evidence from markets so far is that it is fish to which Chinese consumers are switching to meet their cravings for meat.

 

"Fish prices are rising, an indication that consumers may be substituting fish for poultry, not pork," the USGC said.

 

And a continuation of that trend would not be so supportive for demand for corn in a country which is the second biggest producer and consumer of the grain.

 

"Fish are more efficient converters [than chickens] and use less energy feed," Lohmar said. "So if consumers switch to fish this will help increase soy demand a little, but not corn."

 

However, even the impact on corn demand "may not be large", the council added, saying that a 5% drop in Chinese poultry meat production would cause a drop of some 1.1% in the country's demand for the grain.

 

The comments come amid growing concerns that the H7N9 bird flu outbreak, which has infected 87 people in China and killed 17, may be spread by transmission between humans

 

The World Health Organisation on Friday (Apr 12) said that "more than half" the people infected so far "have had no contacts with poultry". However, WHO spokesman Michael O'Leary said that "this is still an animal virus that occasionally infects humans. With rare exceptions, we know that people are not getting sick from other people."

 

The virus has been found in only 40 of 80,000 birds tested so far, he added.

However, the lack of obvious symptoms in the infected animals is hampering efforts to constrain it.

 

The China Daily newspaper raised the potential of the virus being spread by wild birds on migration, quoting an investigator at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Meanwhile, a document is circulating among investors in the US claiming that the outbreak has been spreading through poultry since November, from eastern China to the south west, although there was no means of verifying the claims.