April 22, 2009

Variable Midwest field work conditions, a mixed outlook for major US wheat areas, soy production problems in South America, and mostly favourable conditions at this time in China are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday (April 21).

The DTN Ag Weather--an Omaha, Nebraska-based news source--forecast features a variable outlook for field work across the Midwest through the end of April. In eastern areas, cool and damp weather will persist until late week. This pattern will continue to delay field work in the region. In the western Midwest, conditions will be drier and much warmer, which favours fieldwork and planting. During the 10-day period ending Friday, May 1, the outlook calls for temperatures to be near to below normal west and north, and above normal southeast, along with normal to above normal precipitation. This trend will keep generally slow fieldwork progress in place over the eastern Midwest, with some slowdowns possible in the western areas as well.

In the Southern Plains, developing very warm weather by late week will increase stress to wheat in Oklahoma and west Texas. Wheat in Kansas, Colorado and southwestern Nebraska will benefit from warmer temperatures, after recent rains. Farther north, spring wheat acreage may be reduced because of flooding in North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Field work is not likely for any operation until May 1 at the earliest.

South America soy production continues to suffer because of drought this season. Argentina and southern Brazil production has been hit hardest by the hot and dry conditions.

China's major crop areas had widespread rain of from 0.5 to 2.5 inches during the weekend. Rain extended from the Yangtze River Valley north to Heilongjiang province in the far northeast. The rain will cause some delays in field work for corn and soy areas, and may produce some damage to rapeseed due to the wet weather. Soil moisture for wheat, corn and soy received a significant boost from this rainfall.