April 22, 2009
Argentina soy harvest forecast down at 37 million tonnes
Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday (Apr 21) it had cut its forecast of Argentina's 2009 soy harvest by 3 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes due to dry weather cutting yields.
The forecast is reduced from its April 14 estimate of 40 million tonnes and down from the country's 2008 crop of 46.7 million tonnes.
According to Oil World, if current low yield estimates are confirmed and no improvement is achieved for soy maturing later in the season there is a high risk the country's crop could fall to as low as 34-36 million tonnes.
It said the Argentine crop failure by 36 to 38 million tonnes or lesser will have bullish impacts on the global market, adding that a shift in world demand to US origin will reduce US stocks more than expected until end-August 2009.
Oil World believes that the lower Argentine crop could sharply reduce the Argentine March 2009 and February 2010 soy exports to around six million tonnes from 11.8 million tonnes from the year-ago period.
