April 21, 2008

 

ASA weekly: US soy oil exports to remain brisk in the coming weeks

 

US soy oil exports are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks as South American supplies lagged.

 

Oilseeds analysts, Oil World, said that although the Argentine farm strike has been interrupted for 30 days, exports of soy, soy oil and soymeal are still behind schedule in the first half of April.

 

The analyst further pointed the delays in Brazilian port as custom officers and port workers staged a labor strike.

 

The ban of soy oil and soymeal in Bolivia also aggravated the South American crisis.

 

Oil World said that US exports of soy oil have increased sharply to a 10-year high of 470,000 tonnes between January and March 2008, compared with just 174,000 tonnes a year earlier.

 

The analyst estimates that exports are likely to remain high in the near term.

 

US exports of soy and soymeal have been higher than expected in recent weeks as a result of the South American export problems, the report added.

 

Argentine strike leads to boost in US exports

 

Additional stocks found in USDA's March 1 have been, in large part, depleted by a recent flurry of US export sales of soy.

 

With Argentina's soy exports impeded by a 3-week farmer strike that depleted soy supplies at crushing and export facilities, the US has picked up a considerable amount of export business that presumably will be shipped over the next month or so.

 

Soy export sales for the week ending April 3 were a record 538,000 tonnes and another 240,000 tonnes of sales to China were announced by the USDA.

 

US export sales of soy to China usually are almost nil at this point in the marketing year.

 

US senate approves one-week extension of 2002 farm bill

 

The US senate on April 17 approved to extend the 2002 farm Act by one week.

 

The action, which is intended to give lawmakers negotiating the next farm bill additional time to complete their work, followed by one day an identical vote by the House.

 

The bill goes next to the White House where there has been no clear signal whether President Bush will sign or veto the measure.

 

The extension would allow provisions of that law to remain operational through April 25.

 

If the president signs the extension, it would put significant pressure on Congress to complete the bill by next week.

 

US soy complex mixed as market consolidates April's gains

 

The US soy complex closed mixed on April 17 with soy and soymeal higher, but soy oil declining slightly. 

 

The soy market is consolidating the gains of April's rally.

 

While soy complex futures are subject to considerable volatility at these lofty levels, there appears to be support for these levels from record high corn prices that likely is shifting acres away from soy to corn.

 

Elevated Argentine export taxes call into question Argentina's ability to sustain its ongoing acreage expansion that has accounted for most of the world's soy production growth over the last five years.

 

The lack of a seasonal decline in soy export sales and the soy crush point to a tight 2007-08 US soy carryout that drops to minimal levels.

 

Meanwhile, the NOPA crush for March released last week was 4.03 million tonnes, about 81,600 tonnes below the trade's expectations.

 

Although the March crush was below expectations, the daily crush rate was equal to that of February.

 

Over the last 10 years, only in 2007 when the daily crush did not decline from February to March. 

 

May soy futures closed up US$2.11, finishing at US$496.22; July gained US$2.02, closing at US$502.10; and August was up US$2.20, ending at US$498.24.

 

May soymeal increased US$5.51 closing at US$380.29; July was US$5.73 higher, finishing at US$385.21; and August soymeal closed up US$6.61, ending at US$380.29.

 

May soy oil decreased US$15.43 to finish at US$1341.06; July was down US$15.43, closing at US$1357.59; and August was US$15.43 lower, closing at US$1364.65.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08	2005/06	2006/07	2007/08
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	6,960	12,229	15,617	174	334	185	1,638	2,252	3,851
Production	83,368	86,770	70,358	40,500	48,800	47,000	57,000	59,000	61,000
Imports	92	246	163	1,013	2,359	2,600	40	108	130
Crush	47,324	49,160	49,941	32,748	37,600	38,100	28,756	30,770	31,800
Exports	25,579	30,428	27,896	7,130	12,208	10,000	24,770	23,805	27,900
Other	5,288	4,040	4,495	1,475	1,500	1,525	2,900	2,934	2,950
Usage	78,191	83,628	82,332	41,353	51,308	49,625	56,426	57,509	62,650
Carryout	12,229	15,617	3,806	334	185	160	2,252	3,851	2,331
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	156	285	318	1,686	2,003	2,076	636	863	1,013
Production	37,416	39,033	39,720	25,582	29,153	29,550	22,300	23,850	24,615
Domestic use	30,114	31,171	32,024	574	620	645	10,000	11,500	12,000
Net Exports	7,173	7,829	7,743	24,691	28,460	29,164	12,073	12,200	12,713
Usage	37,287	39,000	39,767	25,265	29,080	29,809	22,073	23,700	24,713
Carryout	285	318	271	2,003	2,076	1,817	863	1,013	915
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	771	1,366	1,317	385	487	350	248	300	301
Production	9,248	9,292	9,614	6,169	7,200	7,320	5,521	5,910	6,105
Domestic use	8,146	8,502	8,573	402	597	1,135	3,172	3,450	3,640
Net exports	507	839	1,071	5,665	6,740	6,160	2,297	2,459	2,450
Usage	8,653	9,341	9,644	6,067	7,337	7,295	5,469	5,909	6,090
Carryout	1,366	1,317	1,287	487	350	375	300	301	316

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 10 April 2008
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Canada	Soybeans	18.40	114.40		Malaysia	Soymeal	2.40	30.60
China	Soybeans	372.60	10804.10		Mexico	Soymeal	2.60	663.60
Colombia	Soybeans	4.10	163.40		Nicaragua	Soymeal	3.30	30.00
Germany	Soybeans	65.40	983.80		Philippines	Soymeal	63.20	346.30
Indonesia	Soybeans	15.50	711.60		Poland	Soymeal	13.40	13.40
Japan	Soybeans	30.20	1846.20		Salvador	Soymeal	7.40	85.30
Malaysia	Soybeans	2.30	46.50		Thailand	Soymeal	1.80	11.00
Taiwan	Soybeans	21.70	1304.80		Vietnam	Soymeal	2.00	48.20
Thailand	Soybeans	1.00	144.70		Canada	Soyoil	0.60	19.40
Australia	Soymeal	25.00	0.00		Colombia	Soyoil	6.10	42.90
Canada	Soymeal	17.20	693.00		Lebanon	Soyoil	0.30	5.30
Colombia	Soymeal	1.00	222.50
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	14.70	238.20		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Germany	Soymeal	25.00	21.80		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Guatemala	Soymeal	9.10	170.50		Soybeans	4,606.90	23,550.40	476.90
Indonesia	Soymeal	2.20	77.10		Soymeal	1,496.70	4,250.60	176.10
Japan	Soymeal	3.30	177.00		Soyoil	194.20	708.50	7.40