April 20, 2012

On the back of increasing crushing capacity to 500,000 hectares which on average yields could produce 835,000 tonnes of soy, South Africa's area is expected to be planted with soy in the 2012-13 season by 6% higher, 22% more than in the 2011-12 marketing year (MY).

Post forecasts that sunflower seed production for the 2012-13 MY will be around 575,000 tonnes on 460,000 hectares.

Peanut production for the 2012-13 MY is expected to decrease marginally to 50,000 tonnes on 40,000 hectares, as farmers move to less labour-intensive crops.

On the back of a decrease in hectares planted and unfavourable weather conditions, total oilseed production is expected to drop by almost 23% to 1.3 million tonnes in the 2011-12 MY. Seasonal rainfall from October-March was below average despite expectations of above-average rainfall during a La Niña year.

Sunflower production is expected to decrease by 42% to 498,000 tonnes. Soy production for the 2011-12 MY is expected to be at the same level as the previous season due to an increase in plantings. Hence, post expects a soy crop of about 707,000 tonnes. Peanut production is expected to decrease by 14% to 55,000 tonnes.

Post forecasts that by the 2012-13 MY, South Africa will crush more soy than sunflower seeds due an increase in soy production and soy crushing capacity. South Africa will produce 873,000 tonnes of oilseed meal in the 2012-13 MY, almost 53% of local consumption, and an increase of 47% from the previous season.

It is expected that locally-produced soyoil will almost double to 135,000 tonnes, while sunflower oil production will stay constant at 247,000 tonnes in the 2012-13 MY. South Africa will crush a record 1.1 million tonnes of oilseeds in the 2011-12 MY on increased soy crushing capacity. This will produce approximately 593,000 tonnes of oilseed meal and 319,000 tonnes of oilseed oil.

In the 2012-13 MY, soymeal imports is expected to drop to 720,000 tonnes due to increased local production of soymeal, while sunflower meal imports are expected to stay constant at 90,000 tonnes. For the 2011-12 MY, imports for soymeal are expected to decrease by almost 8% to 880,000 tonnes, while sunflower meal imports are expected to increase by 18% to 90,000 tonnes.