April 20, 2011

China's grain output will likely rise for an eighth consecutive year to 550 million tonnes this year, from 546.4 million tonnes last year, the Chinese Academy of Social Science said Tuesday (Apr 19).

The forecast is based on "normal" weather conditions, under which grain acreage affected by meteorological disasters would account for less than 30% of total acreage, the academy said.

"If acreage affected by meteorological disasters accounts for more than 35% of the total, we will revise down the forecast to 530 million tonnes," Zhu Gang, a professor at the academy's Rural Development Institute, said.

Prices of agricultural products will likely increase about 9% this year, slowing from an increase of 10.9% last year, he said, as the government's measures to ensure market supply and reduce distribution costs will stabilise prices.

Grain prices are expected to increase 10% this year, compared with 13% last year, Zhu said.

Chinese farmers may plant 5.5 million hectares of cotton and output will reach about 6.5 million tonnes, as high prices encourage them to plant more, the academy said. Cotton output last year was down 6.3% last year to 5.97 million tonnes.

The National Development and Reform Commission in March set China's cotton output target this year at 6.8 million tonnes, up 14% from 2010.

Output of oilseed, which includes rapeseed and peanuts but excludes soy under China's statistical standards, will rise about 2% this year to exceed 33 million tonnes, the academy said. The central government's target was set at 32.5 million tonnes.

This year's meat production may exceed 82 million tonnes, increasing 3.5% from a year earlier. Pork output will increase 2% to 52 million tonnes, the academy said.