April 20, 2009

The world's pork production is seen to increase two percent from last year as expansion in China overshadows lower production for most other major producers.

 

The Chinese growth is fuelled by continued government subsidies and strong domestic demand together with the recovery of production from blue ear disease outbreak in 2007.

 

Canadian production is also seen up partly due to higher slaughter rates as live hog exports are lower and herd downsizing continues.

 

 

US consumption remains relatively flat as lower production is offset by lower exports and higher imports.

 

Global pork imports are forecast to drop 13 percent from last year, with lower imports expected for 8 of the top 10 importing countries.

 

High Russian tariff rates for out-of-quota pork, economic weakness and credit problems are now expected to limit imports to the quota.

 

Chinese imports will shrink as higher production supported by a production subsidy program reduces the need for larger imports.

 

Lesser Ukrainian imports are expected following exceptionally high 2008 imports, economic weakness and high imported pork prices due to currency devaluation. Pork exports are now cut by 12 percent from last year with global economic weakness, the credit crunch, and trade restrictive policies.

 

US pork exports was slashed coming off from a record in 2008 exports as sales to major markets are limited by reduced imports by China and trade restrictive policies in Russia.

 

While EU's pork production is seen down 27 percent from last year as a result of tighter supplies and deteriorating export opportunities.

 

Brazil is forecast to fall below 2008 due to the credit crunch and limited demand from Russia, Brazil's most important market.