April 20, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: 1-2 cents lower on weak exports, e-CBOT

 

 

Traders and analysts expect soybean futures to open lower Thursday on a flat-weak overnight trading session and on export sales that were below expectations and a new low for the marketing year.

 

In overnight e-cbot trade, May soybeans were down 1/2 cent at US$5.73 1/2 and July was 1/4 cent lower at US$5.87 1/2.

 

Export sales for 2005-06 soybeans totaled 194,600 metric tonnes for the week ended April 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. Sales were down 44% from the previous week and one-third below the prior four-week average.

 

Total shipments were 288,700 tonnes, up 54% from the previous week but down 39% from the prior four-week average.

 

So far this season, commitments total 21.835 million tonnes, versus 27.650 million at the same time last year.

 

The data was uninspiring for market bulls and has prompted slightly lower calls at the open.

 

"We're looking somewhere in the area of 1 to 2 cents lower, primarily on the slower export sales," said Don Roose, analyst and president of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Traders are also keeping their eyes on outside markets such as crude oil and precious metals as they have been known to influence the trading and speculative interest in the grain and oilseed markets. Low silver prices Thursday could exert a bearish influence on soybeans, Roose said.

 

"That's (silver) off sharply today, so that's giving us a little bit of a lower tone here in soybeans," he said.

 

Dry weather favors fieldwork and planting in the corn belt across central and eastern areas, while showers and thunderstorms will slow fieldwork in the upper Midwest, the USDA's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility said.

 

In news, Egypt on Thursday confirmed reports that it bought 21,000 metric tonnes of sunflower oil for delivery the second half of May.