April 19, 2012

US beef exports for 2012 are forecast at 2.7 billion pounds, a 2% decline from year-earlier levels, which is expected to occur in the second half of the year.

Imports of beef by the US for 2012 are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds; this would be 19% higher than the import level in 2011, a record low for the past two decades. Imports from Oceania are expected to strengthen as the year progresses and as more product is available for export from herd rebuilding efforts - particularly those in Australia - over the past year. Imports of processed beef from Brazil are expected to steadily increase as the year progresses. In addition, recent efforts in Mexico to increase TIF processing capacity (i.e., federally inspected slaughter plants that meet standards similar to those in the US), to implement more grain feeding of cattle, and to increase the country's export competitiveness are resulting in a greater supply of beef available to the US import market. US import levels for the first quarter of 2012 are forecast at 600 million pounds, a 30% increase year-over-year. Growth of 12, 15, and 22% is forecast for the remaining three quarters of 2012.