April 19, 2012

Colombia's corn output to rise 17%

The corn output of Colombia in MY 2011/2012 is forecast to grow 17% (250,000 tonnes) to 1.7 million tonnes due to government aid for the expansion of commercially produced corn.

Corn production is also expected to increase to 1.83 million tonnes in the upcoming 2012/2013 marketing year.

Strong local prices for corn will also encourage growers to increase planted area. Corn imports are expected to increase by 100,000 tonnes, 2.7% in MY 2012/2013 to 3.75 million tonnes as demand strengthens.

If the Rice Smut SPS issue is not resolved with the Colombian government, imports will continue to be supplied by neighbouring countries and in that case, smuggling would continue.

Wheat imports are expected to increase along with population rate growth, which will maintain wheat per-capita consumption.

The Colombian market for US corn and wheat has decreased dramatically in favour of Mercosur countries and Canada in the last three years. The US corn market share declined from 80% in 2008 to 21% in 2011, due mainly to the preference Colombia granted to Mercosur under the Free Trade Agreement with the Mercosur countries. The US wheat market share declined from 73% in 2008 to 44% in 2010 in favour of Canada.