April 17, 2014

 

US 2014 pork production may drop 2% due to PED

 

 

Due to the spread of porcine epidemic diarrhoea (PED), US pork production is likely to decline about 2% this year, the USDA said in its monthly livestock outlook report.

 

The report said that live hog prices were expected to increase as a result of the pig virus.

 

As of March 1 the US hog herd was at 57.048 million head, 3.7% lower than a year ago with losses largely attributed to PED, USDA said.

 

PED was first confirmed in the US in May 2013. The pig virus has since spread to hog farms 30 US states and industry analysts estimate six million to seven million pigs have died in the US due to the virus.

 

The pig virus is also present on hog farms in four Canadian provinces and several areas in Mexico.

 

In December-February pig crop, PED caused significant losses of pre-weaned piglets, lowering the pigs per litter rate by 5.5% to 9.53. USDA expects PED to also negatively impact the March-May pig crop and cause declines in the pigs per litter rate, the report said.

 

USDA sees slaughter-ready hog prices increasing by 8% to range between US$73 and US$79 per hundredweight (cwt) in the third quarter. Tight supply of pigs will lower slaughter numbers and reduce pork production but heavier weight hogs are expected to partially offset the pork product decline, USDA said.

 

USDA also expects fourth quarter hog prices to increase by 12% to range between US$67 and US$73 per cwt and sees heavier weight hogs again offsetting the expected declines in slaughter numbers.

 

US pork exports will likely decrease while pork imports will increase due to reduced domestic pork production, the report said.

 

US pork exports in 2014 were seen at 4.85 billion pounds, down 2.8% from the previous year. While pork imports were seen at about 915 million pounds, up 4.1% from 2013.

 

USDA said some foreign consumers will buy less US pork than they did in 2013 due to higher prices.