April 16, 2012

Russia's 2011-12 grain export likely up 0.5 million tonnes

As thawing ice allows shipments from shallow-water ports to resume and sales from state stocks boost market supplies, Russian grain exports could exceed official estimates by 0.5 million tonnes and reach 27.5 million tonnes in 2011-12.

"During the remaining months from April-June grain exports will amount to not less than four million tonnes and are expected to reach around 27.5 million tonnes by the end of the season," SovEcon agricultural analysts said on Friday (Apr 13).

Total export of cereals, including flour and legumes, reached 23.1 million tonnes from July to date, of which wheat accounted 18.2 million tonnes, it added.

"Thus, Russia achieved new records of grain and wheat exports three months before the end of the season."

Russia's grain exports could decline to between 1.5 and 1.6 million tonnes in April from 1.8 million in March, due to lower wheat and barley export volumes, but with high corn export levels.

Growing shipments from the Azov-Black Sea shallow-water ports, sales from state intervention stocks and growing rail shipments from the eastern regions of Russia will support export levels, SovEcon believes.

Meanwhile the main deep water port - the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk - will decrease its grain shipping, because it has almost concluded existing wheat supply contracts to Egypt's main government wheat buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC).