April 15, 2013

The USDA has released its latest monthly forecast for US beef output for the remainder of 2013, which suggests a drop of close to 1% from the same report issued a month ago.

In USDA's April report, total US commercial beef production was estimated at 54.9 million tonnes, which is 505,000 tonnes lesser than the same forecast presented in March.

Smaller US feedlot placements will also continue to limit the number of cattle coming to market in the next few months. The slowdown in weight gains is also significant as a surge in cattle weights during 2012 managed to offset a good portion of the decline in the number of cattle coming to market.

The USDA's forecast changes to imports and exports were relatively small, with import volume increased by 22,000 tonnes, and US beef export volume reduced by 33,000 tonnes.

In all, the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reduced the per-capita beef consumption figure by 0.7% compared to its latest forecast and per capita consumption for 2013 is now pegged at 25.3 kilogrammes, down 2.9% compared to a year ago.
 

US live cattle futures dropped to contract lows in trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange last week. Canada also announced that it would impose about US$1 billion in tariffs in US goods to compensate for the impact of Mandatory Country of Origin Labelling (MCOOL) on Canadian beef and pork coming into the US.

Canada is one of the largest buyers of US beef and the tariffs will likely impact US beef shipments to the Canadian market.