April 15, 2004

EU 2004-05 Soft Wheat Output Up 18% On Year

The French state grains board, Office National Interprofessionnel des Cereales, or ONIC, forecast Wednesday that the enlarged 25-nation European Union will produce 117 million metric tons of soft wheat for the 2004-05 marketing year, up 18% from its 2003-04 output estimate of 99 million tons.
 
At a news conference, senior ONIC officials projected that 12.6 million tons of the E.U.-25 soft wheat crop for 2004-05 will be surplus to internal needs and thus available for export.
 
ONIC also forecast that 2004-05 corn production in the enlarged E.U. could reach 50 million tons, up from the 40 million tons grown for 2003-04. An official said about three million tons of the 2004-05 corn crop could be available for export if output is in line with the projection.
 
Additionally, the agency forecast that the E.U.-25 will produce 57 million tons of barley for 2004-05, up from 55 million tons for 2003-04.
 
For the existing 15 E.U. countries, ONIC estimated their soft wheat stocks on June 30, the end of the 2003-04 marketing year, will be 9.2 million tons, down 24% from 12.2 million tons a year earlier.
 
It estimated E.U.-15 soft wheat exports in 2003-04 will be 5.2 million tons, down 54% from 11.3 million tons in 2002-03, and said E.U. soft wheat imports in 2003-04 will be four million tons, down 64% from 11.1 million tons in 2002-03.
 
ONIC said its figure for wheat imports was 500,000 tons less than it had previously estimated, and cited market developments that had reduced the competitiveness of North American wheat against Europe's own wheat within the E.U.
 
ONIC estimated the E.U. soft wheat crop for 2003-04 at 82.4 million tons, down 12% from the previous crop's 94.0 million tons.
 
For France itself, ONIC revised upward its forecast of soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2003-04 marketing year to 2.442 million tons from a previous forecast of 2.331 million tons, confirming market expectations.
 
It estimated the planted area for the French 2004-05 soft wheat crop at 4.905 million hectares, up 7.46% from the 2003-04 crop area of 4.564 million hectares.
 
While ONIC was able to make general grain crop projections for 2004-05 in the enlarged European Union, its officials declined to disclose the French components of those totals or to otherwise elaborate on the E.U.-wide figures. A spokeswoman said ONIC will give its first indications of French 2004-05 grain output in July.