April 14, 2009

An April 1 survey conducted by the Texas field office of the US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service indicates that Texas farmers expect to bring in a substantially smaller harvest of winter wheat in 2009, despite actually seeding more land to the crop.

The agency said producers anticipate statewide winter wheat production of only 62.4 million bushels this year, which would be 37 percent less than 2008 and 56 percent less than was binned in 2007.

Planted acreage for the 2009 crop is estimated at 6.1 million acres, up 5 percent from 2008, although much of the state has been affected by drought since those fields were planted last fall.

"We're still very dry," said Deaf Smith County extension agent Rick Auckerman last week. "We received in our county - out of all this - approximately a quarter-inch (of rain), so we're very dry. The dryland wheat is holding on - barely. The irrigated boys are running pivots just as hard as they can."

Crop prospects have also been greatly impacted by late spring frosts, prompting Jack County agent Heath Lusty to predict average wheat yields of "five to 10 bushels (per acre), depending upon location."

USDA specifically predicts wheat output in the Northern High Plains region of the state at 27.3 million bushels, down 24 percent from a year ago, with output from the Low Plains area at 11.8 million bushels, representing a decrease of 57 percent from 2008. Producers on the Texas Blacklands expect to harvest 11.6 million bushels of wheat, down 30 percent from last year.

As of April 1, 64 percent of all Texas winter wheat acreage was rated in poor or very poor condition, compared to 47 percent on April 1, 2008.

Texas is the only US state to issue an April 1 winter wheat production forecast. The first national wheat production forecast will be released May 12. Texas was the nation's fourth-largest winter wheat-producing state in 2008, with total output of 99 million bushels.