April 14, 2009
Tuesday: China soy futures settle up on CBOT gains; China demand
China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Tuesday, tracking the gains of their counterparts on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight.
The benchmark September 2009 soybean contract settled 0.4%, higher at RMB3,617/tonne.
Continued Chinese buying interest helped to push CBOT soybeans higher, with the May contract finishing 12 3/4 cents higher Monday at US$10.19 3/4 - the highest closing level since late January.
Analysts said that Chinese demand could be higher than official forecasts from both the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the China National Grain and Oils Information Center, which both estimated China's 2009 soybean imports at below 40 million tonnes.
Actual imports could exceed that level as processors turn to cheaper imports rather than compete for local soybeans with the government, which has been paying higher-than-market prices, analysts said.
"The government's purchases have resulted in a domestic supply decline of 3 million to 4 million tonnes," said Shen Enxian, an analyst with China International Futures Co.
Soybean imports surged by more than 60% on year in February and March to 3.26 million and 3.86 million tonnes, respectively.
Soybean imports in April are likely to remain high, with the Ministry of Commerce estimating 2.87 million tonnes based on importers' reports during March 16-31.
Soybean imports last April were 2.39 million tonnes.
Trading volume of all soybean contracts declined to 212,300 lots from 351,678 lots Monday.
Open interest rose 14,464 lots to 324,192 lots Tuesday.
Corn and soymeal futures settled lower, while soyoil and palm oil futures settled higher.
Tuesday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne for benchmark contracts and volume for all contracts in lots (One lot is equivalent to 10 tonnes):
Contract Settlement Price Change Volume
Soybean Sep 2009 3,617 Up 16 212,300
Corn Sep 2009 1,689 Dn 6 110,772
Soymeal Sep 2009 2,862 Dn 43 1,142,632
Palm Oil Sep 2009 6,200 Up 68 502,700
Soyoil Sep 2009 6,852 Up 36 994,930
