April 14, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Review on Monday: Gains on bullish fundamentals, China rumors

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher and near the session high on Monday. Lingering bullish effects of last week's USDA supply and demand report continue to support the soybean market, said Brian Hoops, analyst with Midwest Market Solutions. There were also rumors in the market of fresh Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans.

 

May soybeans finished up 12 3/4 cents at US$10.19 3/4 to produce the highest closing level in 2 1/2 months. May soybean meal closed up US$1.90 at US$313.30 a tonne. May soybean oil futures closed up 65 points at 36.07 cents.

 

There are increasing signs China will import more U.S. soybeans than USDA expects at present, said Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst with Prudential Bache. The U.S. government estimates Chinese soybean imports at 36 million tonnes. Frick said the present pace of Chinese imports is higher than what USDA has forecast, as "supplies are getting tight here."

 

The recent farmer unrest in Argentina only adds to perceptions of tighter world soybean supplies, said another analyst.

 

Traders are awaiting the latest March NOPA soybean crush report, due out Tuesday morning. Analysts expect the latest crush figure to be at 138.4 million bushels, up from 128.7 million in February due to extra days in the month of March.

 

Weekly USDA soybean export inspections came in at 20.481 millions bushels versus 21.185 million last week.

 

Non-commercial speculative funds increased long CBOT soybean futures and options positions by 15,209 contracts, leaving them net long 47,776 contracts as of April 7, the CFTC says in a supplemental report. Index funds increased long positions by 3,253 contracts and were net long 111,171 contracts, it says.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

May soybean meal futures closed modestly higher, nearer the session high and did close at a fresh nine-week high close Monday. Meal prices remain in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

 

May soybean oil futures closed solidly higher and near the session high Monday, and also hit a fresh three-month high as prices are in a steep four-week-old