April 14, 2006

 

Brazil's soy belt seeing lower productivity

 

 

Poor weather conditions and Asian soybean rust means that productivity levels in the Brazilian soy belt will "disappoint" this season, soy analysts at farm consultancy, AgroConsult, say.

 

Brazil's top soy-producing state, Mato Grosso, should harvest 44 bags per hectare, or 2,640 kilogrammes per hectare. That makes the 2005/06 soy crop the worst in terms of production since 1995/96, when Mato Grosso yields averaged 2,460 kg/ha.

 

Excessive rainfall in the north, centre, and northeast could reduce AgroConsult's estimates even further by month's end, as some 30 percent of the state's soy crop has yet to be harvested. All told, Mato Grosso should harvest 15 million tonnes of soybeans out of the 2005/06 harvest.

 

In Goias, the fourth-largest soy producer's yields should be around 45 bags per hectare, or 2,700 kg/ha, slightly better than the 2,624 kg/ha produced in 2004/05, but below 2001 and 2003 soy crops. Goias' total production estimate is 6.7 million tonnes.

 

Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to harvest 39 bags a hectare, or 2,340 kg/ha. That's better than the previous two seasons, but much less than the 2,900 kg/ha produced in 2002/03. The state should harvest 4.4 million tonnes of soybeans this season.

 

"Soy production is worse than we original anticipated and in Mato Grosso, our main producer, production is way below what the area is capable of producing," said Andre Pessoa, director of AgroConsult.

 

AgroConsult held a press conference at the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange on Tuesday to discuss the results of a three week crop tour in 12 Brazilian states.

 

Pessoa said the country should harvest anywhere between 52.5 million and 54.6 million tonnes in a report released Tuesday evening. Their pre-tour estimate was 55.3 million tonnes.

 

Most of the reduction was caused by poor production in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana, which is located in the south.

 

Asian rust was "out of control" throughout most of Mato Grosso, with farmers using four or five fungicide applications to combat soybean rust. A general reduction in fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides also helped insects take a toll on centre-west soy fields.

 

Similar problems were seen on soy farms throughout Brazil. National production is put at 40.9 bags per hectare, with 54 percent of the 1,258 soy fields visited yielding above that, and 46 percent yielding well below.