April 12, 2012

Taiwan's 2011/12 soy imports likely to fall on livestock diseases

Due to reduced livestock production following outbreaks of avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, Taiwan's 2011/12 imports are expected to fall to 2.2 million tonnes.

Higher oil and protein content is stimulating interest in South American beans. As a result, US market share could also fall in MY2011/12. With an expected recovery in the livestock sector, imports are forecast to improve to 2.4 million tonnes in MY2012/13.

Taiwan is fully dependent on imports of soy with demand divided between food use and crushing for meal and oil. In marketing year (MY) 2010/11, Taiwan imported a total of 2.4 million tonnes of soy, with 61% sourced from the US (valued at US$763 million.)

Recent outbreaks of high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N2) and some isolated incidents of foot and mouth disease have disrupted local poultry and swine production. These incidents have also affected consumer demand, at least in the short term, following a string of highly sensationalised food safety events that have raised concerns about meat and poultry products in general.

As a result, soy imports are expected to decline to 2.2 million tonnes in MY2011/12. With the eventual relaxation of consumer fears and an expected recovery of the local livestock sector, soy imports are forecast to improve to 2.4 million tonnes in MY2012/13.