US soy exports seen record high, corn stocks pile up

 

 

US soy exports is likely to reach record levels this marketing year, while smaller-than-expected swelling of corn stockpiles, which briefly boosted grain futures in Chicago.

 

The USDA in its monthly supply/demand report said soy exports will hit a record 1.445 billion bushels in 2009-10 while the corn surplus rises to 1.899 billion bushels, which would be the largest in four years.

 

Although not as big as expected, ample stocks of corn, as well as of soy and wheat were too much for traders to ignore.

 

Meanwhile, US wheat stockpile is forecast for 950 million bushels, the largest in a decade, when the marketing year ends on May 31. When the fall harvest begins, the corn surplus will be the largest in four years, said USDA.

 

Soy futures prices surged at the CBOT when the market opened, with soy for delivery in May rising as high as US$9.64 per bushel, up 17-1/2 cents.

 

But by midday, corn and wheat futures pulled down futures because of forecasts for good crop weather next week.

 

Record-large corn and soy crops for the second year in a row are within reach, based on farmers' planting intentions. USDA on May 11 will issue its first forecast of the winter wheat harvest and project the corn, wheat and soy crops.

 

USDA said strong export demand through March is projected to carry US soy exports 13% above the record of 1.283 billion bushels set in 2008-09. It was the eighth month in a row USDA boosted the forecast.

 

Soy ending stocks are forecast for 190 million bushels, a three-week supply, compared with market expectations of 208 million bushels.

 

Traders said US gains will be limited by increases to already-bumper soy crops in South America.

 

China is now forecast to buy 43.5 million tonnes of soy, up one million tonnes from a March estimate and more than half of the world market in the oilseed in 2009-10, USDA said.

 

According to the USDA, livestock feeders will use less corn than expected, so its corn ending stocks figure was up 100 million bushels from a month ago. Traders expected the estimate to be 1.922 billion bushels. The corn and soy marketing years end on August 31.

 

However, an upturn in wheat exports and feed use will whittle into the wheat surplus, now forecast at 950 million bushels on May 31, up 45% in one year. Traders expected an ending figure of 992 million bushels.