April 11, 2012

Kazakhstan's 2012 wheat harvest seen to fall

As a result of expected lower area and a return to more average yields, the wheat output of Kazakhstan is projected to drop in 2012 from the record crop of 2011.

Nevertheless as a result of huge stocks and steady demand, exports are only expected to fall slightly and remain at a high level.

Although Kazakhstan will remain one of the world's largest flour exporters, the share of flour in total wheat exports is expected to continue to decline.

Kazakhstan wheat production in 2012 is forecast by FAS/Astana at 15 million tonnes, a significant drop from last year's record 22.7 million tonnes crop.

This forecast is very preliminary as nearly all wheat produced in Kazakhstan is spring wheat, and planting of this crop will not even begin for more than a month.

This forecast assumes a decrease to trend yields as well as a slight decline in area from last year. Production of barley is also expected to fall to 2.1 million tonnes from last year's production of 2.6 million tonnes.