April 11, 2007

 

Deadly black rust threatens world's wheat production
 

 

One of the fathers of the "green revolution," the Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug, warns that a virulent new strain of black rust poses a major threat to global production of wheat and "has immense potential for social and human destruction".

 

The disease is called Ug99 and was first discovered in Uganda in 1999. It appears to be a mutation of the more common strains of rust to which most varieties of wheat have a considerable degree of resistance.

 

Ug99 spread slowly across east Africa, but earlier this year spores were discovered in Yemen and is assumed that only a matter of time before the disease reaches Egypt, the Middle East, India and, very possibly, southern countries of Europe.

 

However, scientists are now looking at some strains of wheat, which appear to have a degree of resistance to Ug99. But the fact remains that it can take the better part of 20 years to produce new varieties and even then the yields may not match up to current strains.

 

The threat of a major disease outbreak, very possibly on the same lines as the great potato famine in Ireland in 1845 when millions died, has come a time when world stocks of wheat are at their lowest level for more than 30 years.

 

Rust in its various forms is not new and farmers and scientists have learned to cope with the threat of major disasters.

 

However, forty percent of the wheat crops on American prairies were wiped out by black rust fifty years ago and scientists fear it could happen again if no immediate action has taken place.

 

Borlaug commenced his work on breeding wheat resistant to stem rust in Mexico in 1954 and his success in this field led to being awarded the Nobel peace prize in 1970. The general view is that modern agri-chemicals can be used to treat Ug99 with some success.

 

However, poor farmers in the developing countries of the world are unlikely to use the treatment as they also lack the knowledge on its proper application.

 

A major problem in tackling the disease is that Ug99 appears to be mutating all the time. Initially it was thought that certain genes in several varieties of wheat would give a degree of protection if they could be incorporated in newer types of wheat. However, researchers have now found that Ug99 has become modified to the extent that it can defeat these genes.

 

There is also a sinister aspect to Ug99 in that the US government fears that it could be used by terrorists to create major problems anywhere in the world. Ultimately, Borlaug believes that scientists can defeat the disease but he laments the fact that research programmes have been severely cut back in many countries over the last 40 years and that agriculture has become far too complacent.