April 11, 2007

 

USDA raises 2006/07 US soybean ending stocks forecast

 

 

US soybean ending stocks for the 2006/07 marketing year will be 20 million bushels higher than expected just a month ago due to a weaker crush, reduced exports and lower seed usage, the US Department of Agriculture said Tuesday (Apr 10).

 

The USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report, said US soybean ending stocks will rise to 615 million bushels, up from the March forecast of 595 million bushels.

 

Exporters are now forecast to ship 1.08 billion bushels for the 2006/07 marketing year, down from the March prediction of 1.1 billion bushels. The soybean crush will total 1.765 billion bushels, down from the 1.78 billion forecast last month.

 

There will be less soymeal consumed domestically and less sold overseas, the USDA said.

 

"Although soybean meal exports have been strong through the first half of the marketing year, sharply higher South American supplies are expected to reduce the competitiveness of US soybean meal in the second half of the year," the USDA said.

 

The USDA lowered its 2006/07 forecasts for soymeal production and exports. Production is now predicted at 41.821 million short tonnes, down from the March forecast of 42.421 million tonnes. Exports will total 8.35 million short tonnes, down from 8.7 million tonnes.

 

The USDA on Tuesday raised its forecasts for Brazilian soybean production and exports. Brazil is now forecast to produce 58.8 million tonnes of soybeans, up from 57 million. The country is also expected to export 26.1 million tonnes of soybeans. That is up from USDA's March forecast of 25.9 million.

 

Brazil is predicted to produce and export more soymeal. The new soymeal forecast is for 22.4 million tonnes, up from 21.63 million tonnes.

 

Brazil's soymeal exports are now forecast at 12.13 million tonnes, up from 11.5 million tonnes.