April 10, 2014

For 2013-14, US wheat ending stocks are projected 680,000 tonnes higher with lower imports more than offset by a reduction in feed and residual use, while imports are projected 136,000 tonnes lower based on available shipment data, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) said.

Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels lower based on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by the March 1 stocks and revisions to the December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.

Projected feed and residual use is lowered 272,000 tonnes each for Hard Red Winter, Hard Red Spring, and White wheat. The all wheat export projection is unchanged, but small by-class adjustments are made to exports as well as imports. The projected season-average farm price for all wheat is unchanged at US$248 to US$255 per tonne.

Global 2013-14 wheat supplies are raised 0.5 million tonnes with higher projected beginning stocks, mostly because of reductions in EU and Ukraine consumption for 2012-13. World production for 2013-14 is lowered 0.2 million tonnes with mostly offsetting changes to several countries of 0.1 million tonnes or less.

World wheat imports for 2013-14 are lowered 1.7 million tonnes mostly reflecting a 1.5-million-tonne reduction for China. Smaller import reductions are made for Bangladesh, the EU, Pakistan, and South Africa, but these are mostly offset by increases for Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia. Global exports are lowered with 0.5-million-tonne reductions each for Australia, Canada, India, and Ukraine, and a 0.3-million-tonne reduction for Brazil.

Most of the export reductions reflect the pace of shipments reported to date, but reductions for Australia and Canada are also related to the lower import outlook for China. For Ukraine, the latest trade data indicate a shift in export business from wheat to corn. Partly offsetting the reductions is a 1.0-million-tonne increase for Kazakhstan exports with reports of larger rail shipments to Russia and strong sales to Iran and China.

Global wheat consumption for 2013-14 is lowered 2.4 million tonnes mostly on a 2.0-million-tonne reduction in China wheat feeding. A number of smaller and mostly offsetting changes are also made in consumption for other countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 2.9 million tonnes higher with the largest increases for Ukraine, the US, the EU, Australia, and China.