April 10, 2013

China's 2012-13 soy imports may drop

As bird flu worries and weak pork prices will likely reduce demand for animal feed, China's 2012-13 soy imports may fall for the first time in nine years.

Soy imports in the year ending September 30 are expected at 59 million tonnes, compared with actual imports of 59.24 million tonnes in 2011-12, the state-backed China National Grain & Oils Information Centre said in a report.

The think tank earlier estimated China's 2012-13 soy imports at 60 million tonnes, while the USDA forecast imports at 63 million tonnes.

China's poultry production has been hit heavily by a deadly new strain of bird flu in eastern China. Meanwhile, hog producers are reluctant to replenish stocks as they are losing money from weak pork prices, reducing the demand for soymeal significantly, the CNGOIC said in a report.

Port congestion in Brazil delayed some soy shipments to China, with first-quarter soy imports are expected to reach 11.48 million tonnes, down from last year's 13.27 million tonnes, the CNGOIC said.

As port conditions improve in Brazil, China's soy imports may rebound to 4.8 million tonnes in April from an estimated 3.8 million tonnes in March, while average monthly imports between May and September will hit around 5.7 million tonnes, it said.