April 10, 2009

Chinese government policies will be key in deciding whether the country's soy imports could reach 38 million tonnes in the 2008-2009 crop year, an official from a government think tank said Thursday (Apr 9).

 

The estimation is similar to the 37.8 million tonnes of imports in 2007-2008, Cao Zhi, a department chief at the China National Grain and Oils Information Center, said in a conference held by CNGOIC.

 

The focus will be whether the government will release to the market three million to four million tonnes of soy reserves by September, which will squeeze imports, he said.

 

The government has offered to buy six million tons of soy since last year's harvest to protect farmers' interests amid falling global prices.

 

But the purchases have pushed domestic prices much higher, switching the demand to imported soy.

 

Soy exports to China from the US rose by 4.78 million tonnes on year to 16.39 million tonnes September through March 12, while exports to Taiwan, Japan, Mexico and the EU during the same period fell by a total of 147,000 tonnes to 1.42 million tonnes, Cao said.

 

Meanwhile, global soy prices are likely to rise further late this year, fueled by sustained demand from China, industry participants attending the conference said.

 

The government is also considering more policies to support soy prices which will soon be released, Zeng Liying, deputy chief of the State Administration of Grain, said at the conference.