April 9, 2004

USDA Lowers US 2003-04 Soybean End Stocks By 10 Million Bushels

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for 2003-04 U.S. soybean ending stocks to just 115 million bushels in its monthly supply and demand report, down 10 million bushels from the March forecast.
 
The USDA, in the report released Thursday, said it lowered the carryout prediction because "higher exports and crush more than offset lower residual use." The USDA raised its U.S. forecasts for U.S. soybean exports and crush, each by 10 million bushels.
 
The 2003-04 soy crush is now predicted to reach a total of 1.475 billion bushels, while exports are forecast at 900 million bushels.
 
Analysts generally did not expect the USDA to lower its ending stocks forecast or the residual figure, but it did in both cases. Residual use is now seen at just 22 million bushels in 2003-04, down 10 million bushels from the March forecast.
 
The USDA also said in the report it is expecting U.S. soybean farmers to receive stronger prices. Higher U.S. exports, decreased South American production and lower global stocks will "push the season-average farm price to the highest level in 20 years," the USDA said.
 
"The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2003-04 is increased 25 cents on both ends of the range to $7.40 to $7.80 per bushel," the USDA said.