April 8, 2009

The National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, has released new estimation figures of Brazil's corn, wheat and soy production.

Brazil should produce 51.9 million tonnes of corn in 2008-09, with total production seen falling 11.5 percent from the 2007-08 season and slightly above its March estimate of 50.3 million tonnes for 2008-09.

Brazil, which has two corn harvests per year, should produce 33.8 million tonnes from the first harvest and 18 million tonnes from the second, Conab said.

Areas in Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul states, in the south of Brazil, face a 15.3-percent fall in corn production from the first harvest due to prolonged hot, dry weather that hindered the development of the crop at the end of 2008, Conab said.

Conab said Brazil should harvest 58.1 million tonnes of soy in the 2008-09 crop year.

The number is slightly above Conab's previous estimate in March that put the soy crop at 57.6 million tonnes for 2008-09 compared to 60 million tonnes from the 2007-08 soy crop.

Planted area is seen at 21.5 million hectares in 2008-09 compared to 21.3 million hectares in the 2007-08 season, Conab said.

The harvesting is more than 50 percent finished in Brazil, with states such as Mato Grosso, Brazil's No.1 soy producer, approaching the final stage.

Mato Grosso has seen good productivity and any isolated losses due to low levels of fertiliser use or unfavourable weather, were counterbalanced with gains in others parts of the giant state.

Conab reiterated that soy growing states in the south of Brazil such as Parana, the No.2 soy producing state, and Mato Grosso do Sul, were impacted by the prolonged drought between November and early January.

Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's No.3 soy producing state, experienced favourable weather in January and February helping the beans to recover from the dry weather. The state is just beginning its harvest.

Mato Grosso should harvest 17.88 million tonnes of soy in 2008-09, up 0.2 percent compared to 17.84 million tonnes in 2007-08 despite the lower use of fertiliser.

Mato Grosso's yields are estimated at 3,099 kg per hectare, which is below Conab's prior estimate of 3,105 kg per hectare in March and below 3,145 kg per hectare in 2007-08.

Parana state should harvest 9.8 million tonnes of soy, down 16.9 percent from 11.8 million tonnes in 2007-08 due to the earlier drought. This was also lower than Conab's estimate of 10 million tonnes in March.

Parana state should record yields of around 2,461 kg per hectare compared to 2,991 kg per hectare in 2007-08 and 2,500 kg per hectare in its March estimate due to dry weather.

The main hike has been in Rio Grande do Sul state that should harvest 8.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, up 7.2 percent compared to 7.7 million tonnes in 2008-09.

The state should see yields at 2,200 kg per hectare compared to 2,028 kg per hectare a year ago.

Other states such as Santa Catarina, Goias, Minas Gerais, Rondonia and Piaui should also reap higher production in 2008-09 than 2007-08.

Brazil's 2008-09 wheat crop should be 46-percent greater than last season's crop, for a total output of 6.01 million tonnes, Conab said.

The estimate is down slightly from 6.03 million tonnes from Conab's last data in March.

Government incentives and high wheat prices have encouraged Brazilian farmers to plant more wheat for the new 2008-09 crop.