April 8, 2004

Brazil's Abiove Reduces 2003-04 Soy Crop Forecast

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, or Abiove, has cut its 2003-04 soybean crop estimate to 52.8 million metric tons, from 56.9 million tons pegged last month, following irregular weather conditions since January and widespread attacks from the Asian rust fungus.
 
This year's crop is now seen only 1.6% higher than the 51.87 million tons collected last year, despite a sharp jump in planted area.
 
The crushers' estimate is now in line with local analyst estimates.
 
The association also lowered its forecast for soybean exports in 2004-05 (February-January) to 21.2 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 22.8 million tons. Last season exports totaled 19.99 million tons.
 
Meanwhile, this year's crush estimate was lowered to 31.0 million tons, from 32.1 million tons in March. Last year, crushing totaled 27.80 million tons.
 
Soymeal production is seen totaling 24 million tons in 2004-05, down from a previous estimate of 25.0 million, and higher than last year's 21.4 million tons. Meanwhile, meal exports will reach 16.2 million tons, up from 13.58 million tons last year.
 
Soyoil output is pegged at 5.9 million tons, adjusted only slightly from 6.0 million in March but higher than the 5.35 million tons produced last season, Abiove said. Exports are pegged at 2.9 million tons, up from 2.4 million tons in 2003-04.
 
Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer.