China set to become net beef importer

Just two years ago, China's exports exceeded registered imports by seven to one but official beef imports are set to grow 30% this year to 30,000 tonnes.

These imports will come mainly from Australia, Uruguay and New Zealand. In addition, a USDA report suggests that at least a further 100,000 tonnes enters the country through "grey" channels, mainly from Brazil and the USA.

China is the fourth largest beef market in the world, at 5.5 million tonnes. Domestic production is set to fall by 4.6% this year. Official forecasts predict a 4.3% drop in consumption, still leaving room for a small rise in imports.

However, with the population set to grow by 9m and the economy forecast to grow further in 2010, predictions of a decline in beef consumption may be too pessimistic.

China's calf crop is forecast to be down 4% to 41 million head in 2010, yet China's efforts to grow domestic production continue, following the removal of one million dairy cows in the wake of the melamine scandal in 2008. Live imports are forecast to increase 25% to 45,000 head this year, mainly coming from Australia and New Zealand.