April 6, 2010

 

Russian grain prices mostly stable over the week 
 

 

Average Russian grain export and domestic prices were largely unchanged last week, with marginal declines and increases but no apparent overall trend, according to analysts.

 

"The export market may be close to stability," SovEcon agricultural analysts said in a weekly note. "But we cannot state the same for the domestic market due to a rise in logistic expenses, a stronger rouble and the necessity to reach parity with export market. The only bullish factor is the relatively low stocks in the Central Black Soil Region and the North Caucasus."

 

SovEcon said some buyers lowered CPT prices (including delivery) in Novorossisk to RUB4,300-4,700 (US$146-US$160) per tonne from RUB4,600-4,700 (US$156-US$160) a week before. However, some other traders in the North Caucasus and the Central Black Soil Region were reported to have signed big deals at prices above the existing level.

 

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said in its weekly note CPT prices rose as exporters continued to experience difficulties in finding wheat at current prices.

 

Last week traders and analysts said producers were trying to sell grain at high prices to exporters that had urgent contracts to execute.

 

SovEcon said grains prices in most regions fell slightly, but prices in the European part of the country for fourth-grade (ordinary) wheat offer prices rose by RUB25 (US$0.9) to RUB3,625 (US$123) per tonne.

 

Wheat with 11.5% protein and bug damage below 1% remained unchanged at around US$171 per tonne FOB Novorossisk, with higher damage at US$165-US$166 per tonne, IKAR said.

 

It said March exports were preliminarily estimated to have declined substantially from March 2009 to 1.7 million tonnes from 2.16 million. Therefore, total exports from the start of the 2009-10 crop year on July 1 are preliminarily estimated at 15.87 million tonnes, down from 16.72 million a year ago.

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