April 6, 2006

 

Brazil's Abiove lowers 2006/07 soy crush estimate to 29.4 million tonnes

 

 

The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) lowered its soy crush estimate for market year 2006/07 to 29.4 million tonnes on Wednesday (Apr 5), down 300,000 tonnes from their Mar 7 estimate.

 

The 29.4 million figure is out of a 2005/06 soy crop Abiove puts at 57.4 million tonnes, compared with a soy crush of 29.5 million tonnes from the 2004/05 crop of 52.6 million tonnes of soy.

 

In February, when soy from the newly arrived 2005/06 harvest was coming into soy crushing firms, some 1.6 million tonnes of soy was crushed into meal and soyoil, down from 1.7 million in February 2005 and February 2004.

 

Low domestic prices and an unfavourable currency exchange between the US dollar and Brazilian real has led soy farmers to hold onto some of their newly harvested soy.

 

Abiove raised its soy export estimate by 100,000 tonnes to 24.9 million tonnes in market year 2006/07, compared with the 22.3 million tonnes in 2005/06.

 

Soymeal exports remain targeted at 13.4 million tonnes in market year 2006/07, down from the 13.9 million tonnes in 2005/06.

 

Bird flu fears in some of Brazil's main chicken export markets will lead to an overall reduction in soymeal production. Abiove estimates 2006/07 soymeal production to be around 22.7 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes less than their Mar 7 estimate.

 

Internal soymeal consumption is put around 9.4 million tonnes, down from 9.6 million tonnes in their last estimate.

 

In February, however, local consumption was shown to be on par with the past three years, with domestic soymeal consumption at 584,000 tonnes in February, relatively flat in comparison to February 2005 and up nearly 75,000 tonnes from February 2004.

 

Soy oil will face a small reduction in exports, Abiove estimates, down roughly 50,000 tonnes to 2.4 million. Soy oil production is projected at 5.6 million tonnes, down from 5.65 million from their Mar 7 estimate.

 

Brazil is the world's second largest producer of soybeans after the US.