April 6, 2006

 

ASA Weekly: US soybean planted area up 7 percent in 2006; WTO set to issue ruling in EU biotech case

 

 

US soybean planted area up 7 percent in 2006

 

US farmers intend to plant an estimated 31.1 million hectares of soybeans in 2006, up 7 percent from the acreage planted in 2005, according to USDA's latest Prospective Plantings report. If realised, this will be the largest planted area on record, USDA said.

 

Growers in 20 of the 31 soybean producing states intend to plant more acres this year, while producers in 10 states intend to plant fewer acres than in 2005. Though increased soybean acreage is expected across the central and northern Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta, the largest intended increase is in North Dakota, USDA said.

 

USDA also reported that soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at a record high 23.7 million tonnes (up 10 percent from a year ago) and off-farm stocks are 21.7 million tonnes. Indicated disappearance for the December 2005 to February 2006 quarter totalled 22.7 million tonnes, down 10 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to USDA.

 

WTO set to issue ruling in EU biotech case

 

The Bureau of National Affairs reports that a WTO panel is due to issue a final ruling in early May in the dispute over the EU's alleged moratorium on the market authorisation of products containing genetically engineered crops.

 

The ruling will become official only after it has been circulated to the entire WTO membership and formally adopted by the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). BNA notes that because the ruling must be translated into the WTO's three official languages (English, French, and Spanish), officials said the ruling may not be circulated until sometime shortly before the WTO's annual summer break in August.

 

The parties will have 60 days from the date of adoption by the DSB to decide whether to appeal the panel's ruling.

 

Senate Agriculture Committee chairman not ruling out farm bill extension

 

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) says that while his intention is to write a few farm bill, he has not ruled out a simple extension of current legislation, largely because he is less optimistic that the WTO's Doha Round will be concluded before the 2002 farm bill expires.

 

In a recent interview, Chambliss said a simple extension is "probably more alive today than it has been because it's becoming less and less likely that we're going to have a WTO agreement."

 

Asked about the difficulty the Bush administration will have in convincing Congress to extend its trade promotion authority, Chambliss said, "The future of agriculture lies in our ability to export products, so extension of TPA¡­is important because if we don't have it, it would change ¡­ how we approach the farm bill."

 

The chairman was asked about the increasing importance of conservation payments in the overall mix of farm program payments and whether the next farm bill might increase funding for conservation at the expense of traditional commodity programs. He noted that Congress increased conservation under the 2002 farm bill and could well do so again in the next farm legislation.

 

"There is certainly a concern on the part of farmers that they have the funding available in conservation programs to take care of not only non-productive land but improve wildlife habitat and other means of letting them have additional income," Chambliss said.

 

He added that he believes there are a number of ways Congress can help farmers through the conservation title by providing additional income that moves them away from total reliance on the commodity title. "But the commodity title is still the guts of the program," the chairman said, "and that is where I am sure most of the concentration will be."

 

Turning to the subject of continuing efforts to lower the maximum payment that an individual farmer could receive, Chambliss said, "Folks who talk with me are always happy with the 2002 farm bill for the most part. They like the three-entity rule. We don't see the significance of abuse of a program ¡­ you maybe see with some other programs."

 

He also pointed out that Congress previously cut maximum payments from US$450,000 to US$360,000, and that in the future his committee would "try to fit whatever we do within the amount of money we have and make sure we have the funding for whatever conclusions we come to".

 

In defence of current payment caps, the chairman said, "The folks who have to worry about payment limits are the folks who have the biggest investment and therefore they have the biggest risk. It's always been easy for me to argue in support of the high payment limit we have because those folks gamble a lot more than somebody who doesn't have that significant investment."

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06	2003/04	2004/05	2005/06
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	4,853	3,059	6,954	1,630	2,046	2,181	3,231	2,453	715
Production	66,778	85,013	82,820	33,000	39,000	40,500	50,500	51,000	58,500
Imports	151	152	109	540	530	485	364	400	425
Crush	41,631	46,160	46,811	25,072	27,800	29,100	29,172	28,175	29,675
Exports	23,946	30,011	27,759	6,500	9,800	10,000	19,571	22,180	25,750
Other	3,146	5,099	4,297	1,552	1,795	1,810	2,899	2,783	3,000
Usage	68,723	81,270	78,867	33,124	39,395	40,910	51,642	53,138	58,425
Carryout	3,059	6,954	11,016	2,046	2,181	2,256	2,453	715	1,215
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	200	191	155	347	354	560	763	532	200
Production	32,953	36,938	37,116	19,807	21,806	22,900	22,920	22,200	23,395
Domestic use	28,590	30,448	31,116	700	850	950	8,784	8,850	9,250
Net Exports	4,372	6,526	5,928	19,100	20,750	22,050	14,367	13,682	14,050
Usage	32,962	36,974	37,044	19,800	21,600	23,000	23,151	22,532	23,300
Carryout	191	155	227	354	560	460	532	200	295
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	676	488	771	99	74	100	150	93	95
Production	7,748	8,781	9,011	4,513	5,115	5,354	5,258	5,120	5,371
Domestic use	7,651	7,910	8,142	140	145	155	2,710	2,848	2,870
Net exports	285	588	583	4,398	4,944	5,224	2,605	2,270	2,516
Usage	7,936	8,498	8,725	4,538	5,089	5,379	5,315	5,118	5,386
Carryout	488	771	1,057	74	100	75	93	95	80

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 23 March 2006
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Canada	Soybeans	3.50	157.80		Hong Kong	Soymeal	0.20	10.70
China	Soybeans	112.80	8870.00		Jamaica	Soymeal	0.60	53.10
Colombia	Soybeans	8.10	119.50		Japan	Soymeal	2.30	187.50
Costa Rica	Soybeans	8.20	144.30		Nicaragua	Soymeal	0.50	33.30
Egypt	Soybeans	9.00	485.20		Slovakia	Soymeal	0.10	0.30
Indonesia	Soybeans	5.60	692.50		Barbados	Soyoil	0.10	0.60
Israel	Soybeans	14.70	134.80		Canada	Soyoil	0.10	14.10
Japan	Soybeans	19.00	173.10		Haiti	Soyoil	0.10	0.10
Malaysia	Soybeans	1.70	163.50		Mexico	Soyoil	6.10	67.00
Mexico	Soybeans	133.40	2012.80		Nicaragua	Soyoil	5.00	2.00
Philippines	Soybeans	0.10	71.40		Salvador	Soyoil	0.80	2.80
Taiwan	Soybeans	8.70	166.20		Trinidad	Soyoil	0.10	1.00
Turkey	Soybeans	15.80	313.70
Canada	Soymeal	80.20	549.80
Chile	Soymeal	23.20	56.50		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Colombia	Soymeal	9.80	197.80		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Czech Rep.	Soymeal	0.20	0.00		Soybeans	1,897.70	19,044.00	220.60
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	0.20	171.60		Soymeal	1,237.30	3,132.70	178.90
Guatemala	Soymeal	0.20	131.40		Soyoil	101.20	154.10	9.40